Consulting Services - Modelling and Assessment of Coastal Climate Change Impacts in Saint Lucia

TERMS OF REFERENCE

FOR CONSULTING SERVICES ​****​

Modelling and Assessment of Coastal Climate Change Impacts in Saint Lucia

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The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an award-winning independent think tank working to accelerate solutions for a stable climate, sustainable resource management, and fair economies. Our work inspires better decisions and sparks meaningful action to help people and the planet thrive. We shine a light on what can be achieved when governments, businesses, non-profits, and communities come together. IISD’s staff of more than 200 experts come from across the globe and from many disciplines. With offices in Winnipeg, Geneva, Ottawa, and Toronto, our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries.

Background

The Government of Saint Lucia has been awarded a Green Climate Fund (GCF) Readiness and Preparatory Support Programme Grant to assist in advancing the country’s national adaptation planning process. This grant will be implemented with the support of the International Institute for Sustainable Development as the nominated Delivery Partner.

Saint Lucia initiated its national adaptation plan (NAP) process in 2017 and finalized its NAP document in 2018. Since the launch of the NAP, the government has developed–and Cabinet has approved–several key policies, strategies, and action plans outlined in the NAP document. This process includes the development of four Sectoral Adaptation Strategies and Action Plans (for water, agriculture, fisheries, and resilient ecosystems). Notwithstanding, more work remains to be done to ensure the successful implementation of the actions identified within the NAP document. The awarded Readiness Grant seeks to further enhance the country’s 10-year goal under the NAP process by addressing the outstanding priority sectors, information gaps, and barriers that remain.

One of the three barriers that the GCF Readiness Grant will seek to address is the limited understanding of the scale and scope of risk that Saint Lucia’s coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activities are exposed to. The majority of Saint Lucia’s population and economic activity takes place on or near its coast; many of the country’s houses, towns, hotels, fisheries, roads, and ports, among other key infrastructure, are closely tied to the water. As sea levels rise, rainfall becomes more erratic and unpredictable, and storms and their surges increase in intensity, many Saint Lucians and their homes, towns, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure are increasingly exposed to flood risk. However, the extent of this exposure and its associated vulnerabilities remain unclear, as does the distribution of risks across different genders and social groups. Saint Lucia’s NAP has highlighted a pressing need to establish this baseline information to develop adequate adaptation and resilience-building responses.

Macro-scale sea level rise (SLR) modelling and SLR plus storm surge modelling were conducted for Saint Lucia as part of the regional study, Quantification and Magnitude of Losses and Damages Resulting from the Impacts of Climate Change: Modelling the Transformational Impacts and Costs of SLR in the Caribbean. While the National Integrated Planning and Programme Unit (NIPP-Unit) within the Government of Saint Lucia (GoSL) has recently conducted geographic information system (GIS) mapping and modelling for Saint Lucia to better understand the impact of a 1-metre SLR on the city of Castries as part of Castries Vision 2030, the understanding of island-wide impacts remains limited.

Through the awarded Readiness Grant, the GoSL currently seeks to engage consulting services to build upon these efforts. The goals will include producing more refined modelling of the exposure to SLR hazards and tropical cyclone coastal hazards enhanced by SLR with accompanying vulnerability, risk, and economic impact assessments, including disaggregated analysis by gender and different social groups. The outputs of the consultancy will be used to inform future adaptation planning.

The Objective of the Assignment

The assignment will aim to increase the resilience of coastal ecosystems, critical infrastructure and facilities, economic sectors, and coastal communities in Saint Lucia to the combined effects of SLR, stronger tropical cyclones, and other extreme weather events through

• the collection of baseline data on coastal risks and the analysis of this data;
• modelling the extent of permanent coastal inundation, erosion, and shoreline retreat under various SLR scenarios and the extent of these SLR hazards, combined with tropical cyclone and extreme weather hazards, including temporary coastal flooding and erosion (from storm surge, wave runup, and wave setup) and fluvial flooding;
• the development of a climate vulnerability and risk assessment for exposed natural and human-made assets: ecosystems, critical infrastructure, critical facilities, critical assets (e.g., economic and cultural assets), and communities, including, as appropriate, disaggregation by gender and social groups. This assessment should consider overlaps between economic and non-economic losses where the former typically refers to income-generating and physical assets, such as infrastructure and property, while the latter typically refers to impacts on individuals (e.g., life), society (e.g., culture), and environment (e.g., ecosystem services); and
• the development of an economic impact assessment, including expected loss and damage, for Saint Lucia’s coastline, focusing on the combined effect of SLR, tropical cyclones, and other extreme weather events.

These goals will enable the GoSL to design appropriate adaptation responses and interventions across a host of sectors, including infrastructure, tourism, and fisheries, ensuring the inclusion of equitable benefits for people of all genders and social groups. This work would build on the regional level work being undertaken through the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan and associated country analysis, in particular, the regional climate change risk profile developed in 2020. The risk profile documented the shared socio-economic, structural, and climate vulnerabilities of the territories and countries of the Eastern Caribbean and recommended adaptation strategies that can be implemented to build resilience to climate risks, both now and in the future.

Scope of Work

This assignment will cover the entire coastline of Saint Lucia and include three indicative phases, as described below. Capacity building and knowledge transfer are priorities for the GoSL. As such, the Consulting Firm will be expected to provide a training workshop at the end of each phase of the project, as well as reasonable ongoing opportunities for GoSL staff to partake in the work of each phase.

PHASE 1: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS (GCF Readiness Output 3.2.1: Baseline understanding of the current state of information on climate change risks to Saint Lucia’s coastlines is enhanced.)

There is an urgent need to improve the information base with regard to the risks posed by climate change impacts that will allow informed decisions. In Phase 1, the information available for Saint Lucia will be collected, collated, and assessed to determine its suitability and limitations in enabling a quality study. Any additional data critical to the assignment will be collected, or suitable alternatives will be identified. Preliminary data processing will also be conducted during this phase.

An indicative list of datasets to be collated and analyzed for the modelling and assessment will be provided.

PHASE 2: COASTAL INUNDATION, EROSION, RETREAT, AND FLOOD MODELLING AND MAPPING (GCF Readiness Output 3.2.2: Coastal mapping and modelling developed)

This phase will model and map the geographic extent and severity of SLR hazards, including permanent inundation, erosion and shoreline retreat, and SLR hazards plus temporary flooding and erosion in coastal areas from storm surges, wave runup, and wave setup during defined tropical cyclone events. For a limited set of flood-prone coastal communities where hydrologic modelling has already been done/is being done (Downtown Castries, Dennery, and Soufriere), the combined effect of fluvial flooding during defined tropical cyclone events will also be modelled.

This phase should build upon and enhance previous SLR and storm surge modelling work described in the background section. Using three SLR projections (as defined under the Specific Tasks section), the Consulting Firm will undertake modelling and mapping to estimate

1. the extent and depth of permanent inundation of coastal areas as a result of SLR to 2050 and 2100;
2. the potential extent of coastal erosion and shoreline retreat in unconsolidated areas as a result of SLR to 2050 and 2100, considering historic shoreline erosion rates and anticipated accelerated erosion rates. This analysis should consider the potential permanent erosion impact from hurricane storm surge events that may be expected during the period based on return probabilities;
3. the combined extent and depth of temporary flooding from coastal flooding (storm surge, wave runup, and wave setup) and fluvial flooding during two defined tropical cyclone events as enhanced by SLR to 2050 and 2100.

This process should result in model outputs and maps for each (1 to 3) under all SLR projections and tropical cyclone scenarios.

PHASE 3: VULNERABILITY, RISK, AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT (GCF Readiness Output 3.2.3: Vulnerability, risk, and economic impact assessment for Saint Lucia is finalized_.)_

This phase will build upon the datasets and analyses produced in phases 1 and 2 to produce a climate vulnerability and risk assessment and an economic impact assessment of exposed ecosystems, critical infrastructure, critical facilities, critical assets, and communities (please refer to the description under the Objective of the Assignment section). “Vulnerability” is understood as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, while “risk” is understood as a function of the likelihood of a hazard and the expected impacts and consequences. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability and hazard.

The work of this phase will, therefore, assess who and what is vulnerable, to what extent, why, and associated risks by exploring exposure, sensitivities, adaptive capacities, impacts, and consequences. This phase will also cost expected loss and damage at the community, sector, and national levels. Finally, the outputs of this phase will broadly discuss policy and planning implications to inform future adaptation planning.

Specifically, the climate vulnerability and risk assessment will

1. map and inventory the ecosystems, critical infrastructure, critical facilities, critical assets, and communities exposed to SLR hazards and SLR plus tropical cyclone coastal hazards under all SLR scenarios to 2050 and 2100 and a select tropical cyclone scenario;
2. describe and quantify the impacts of permanent inundation, erosion, shoreline retreat, and temporary flooding on ecosystems, critical infrastructure, critical facilities, critical assets, and communities under one select combined SLR and tropical cyclone scenario to 2050 and 2100;
3. Assess, describe, and rate the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of impacted ecosystems, critical infrastructure, critical facilities, critical assets, and communities (noting that each may require its own methodology and consider the differences and overlaps between potential economic and non-economic losses) under one select combined SLR and tropical cyclone scenario to 2050 and 2100; and
4. determine and describe the consequences of these impacts. Consequences refer to the wider set of implications that result from a particular impact or impacts and incorporate numerous factors, including the scale and potential severity of the impact, what and who is affected, and their adaptive capacity.

The economic impact assessment will cost expected loss and damage due to SLR and SLR plus tropical cyclone impacts, as well as consequences under the selected combined SLR and tropical cyclone scenario.

Payment Schedule

Payments will be made in instalments based on the fixed contract price, as follows:

Deliverables

PHASE 1: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

% Contract value (est.) - 30%

1. Inception report, including participant lists disaggregated by gender (with a target of 50% women participating)
   Due by: month 3
2. Completed inventory report, including details of databases with descriptions of available data (delivered)
   Due by: month 3
3. Completed report and communications products detailing analysis of available data and a strategy for addressing data gaps and constraints posted to the Saint Lucia climate change website
   Due by: month 5
4. a. Completed full-day training workshop for at least 25 participants, Phase 1
   b. Summary training report for one full-day Phase 1 training workshop, including pre- and post-workshop evaluation forms, training materials, and a participant list disaggregated by gender 
   Due by: month 5

PHASE 2: COASTAL INUNDATION, EROSION, AND FLOOD

% Contract value (est.) - 40%

1. Final modelling report summarizing files for selected climate change scenarios and SLR projections
   Due by: month 7
2. Final assessment report of erosion impacts
   Due by: month 8
3. Final report on coastal inundation, erosion, and flood modelling and mapping, including detailed modelling for each SLR projection; a series of high-resolution, cartographically correct GIS-compatible maps; and a confidence analysis of the modelling results
   Due by: month 12
4. Final model report containing the total flooding (coastal and fluvial) and erosion potential under two defined tropical cyclone events with a series of high-resolution cartographically correct GIS-compatible maps
   Due by: month 12
5. a. Completed full-day training workshop for at least 25 participants, Phase 2
   b. Summary training report for Phase 2, including pre- and post-evaluation forms, training materials, and a participant list of 25 stakeholders disaggregated by gender (with a target of 50% women participating)
   Due by: month 13

PHASE 3: VULNERABILITY, RISK, AND ECONOMIC IMPACT ASSESSMENTS

% Contract value (est.) - 30%

1. Final vulnerability and risk assessment report, including vulnerability and risk maps, vulnerability and risk inventories, and vulnerability and risk profiles for each natural or built asset or asset class. Sub-components of the vulnerability and risk assessment are an ecosystem vulnerability and risk assessment; a critical infrastructure, facilities, and assets vulnerability and risk assessment; and a community vulnerability and risk assessment
   Due by: month 17
2. Approved economic impact assessment report for SLR combined with tropical cyclone coastal hazards
   Due by: month 18
3. a. Report on technical requirements for a decision support system for coastal development   
   b. Fully functional decision support system to guide coastal development in high-risk communities to 2100 based on coastal mapping and modelling, including an interactive GIS-based data viewer; an interactive GIS-based map of the coastal zone categorized by vulnerability; a comprehensive database of all data and information used for the conduct of the assignment; and an interactive query interface allowing text-based search of vulnerability and risk maps, inventories, and profiles.
   Due by: month 19
4. a. Completed full-day training workshop for at least 25 participants, Phase 3
   b. Final summary training report for Phase 3 and pre- and post-evaluation forms, including training materials and a participant list disaggregated by gender (with a target of 50% women participating).
   Due by: month 20

Detailed terms of reference can be accessed here.

Location:  It is expected that the Consulting Firm will be required to deliver the work through a combination of remote and in-person work in Saint Lucia.

Term: 20 Months

Start date: 1 February 2024 or as soon as possible.

Closing date: 18 December, 2023, at11:59 PM E.S.T

Application Procedure

Suitably qualified organizations/firms are invited to submit their Expression of Interest (EOI), including the following documents:

• Cover letter presenting the motivation and detailing relevant qualifications, experience, and professional networks
• Financial proposal
• Contact details of two references

All submissions must be in English. Applications will only be accepted through Bamboo HR.

Companies/firms have the option to collaborate with other organizations to enhance their qualifications. It is important to clearly state whether the collaboration is in the form of a partnership or sub-consultancy.

For any questions, kindly email the NAP GN Secretariat at info@napglobalnetwork.org.

IISD is committed to fostering a more equitable and sustainable world and welcomes candidates who uphold our values of diversity, equity, and inclusion. In addition, to correct the conditions of social injustice and disadvantage in employment around the world, we encourage candidates from historically marginalized groups, including women, Indigenous Peoples, people with disabilities, people from different racial and ethnic backgrounds, and those who identify themselves as 2SLGBTQIA+, to apply for this position. We offer reasonable accommodations in our recruitment process and seek applicants' advice on how best to accommodate their needs.

IISD does not discriminate on the basis of age, gender, caste, ethnicity, religion, colour, disability, marital status, pregnancy, gender expression or identity, sexual orientation, or any other legally protected status.

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